ETRiS presented two studies at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2025 within session NH5.1 – Natural Hazards and Risks.

The first study, “Probabilistic Coastal Tsunami Evacuation Modeling Using Agent-based Modeling in Catania, Italy”, presented a probabilistic agent-based framework for tsunami evacuation in Catania. Using 92 tsunami scenarios and Monte Carlo simulations, the study evaluated the probability of safe evacuation under different conditions and levels of early-warning availability.

The second study, “Analytical Tsunami Fragility Modeling for Building Classes Using Tsunami Time-History Simulations”, introduced a framework for developing analytical tsunami fragility curves using tsunami time-history simulations and structural modeling. Fragility curves were derived for low-rise reinforced-concrete buildings in Catania, Sicily.

These studies demonstrate ongoing ETRiS developments in probabilistic evacuation modeling and analytical fragility assessment for tsunami risk analysis.