ETRiS research was presented at the EGU General Assembly 2024 in the study “Scenario-based Probabilistic Tsunami Risk Analysis for Coquimbo Bay”.

The study focused on Coquimbo Bay, Chile, which was affected by the 2015 Illapel tsunami, and demonstrated how uncertainties can be quantified and propagated from the tsunami source level through to risk metrics such as economic losses.

A range of near-field tsunami scenarios with moment magnitudes between 8.6 and 9.3 was considered for the Nazca–South American plate interface. The analysis used a large set of stochastic scenarios with variable slip distributions and combined different seismicity-rate estimates derived from paleoseismic data, historical catalogues, and moment balancing through a logic-tree approach.

The resulting workflow produced scenario-based tsunami hazard and risk curves with confidence intervals for selected points of interest in the port city of Coquimbo.