Geo-INQUIRE Workshop
PTRA Workshop
From Scenarios to Consequences: Probabilistic Tsunami Risk Analysis (PTRA) with Geo-INQUIRE Services
Workshop Overview
This workshop introduces the principles and practical workflow of Probabilistic Tsunami Risk Analysis (PTRA) using Geo-INQUIRE services and open research tools. Participants will explore how probabilistic hazard assessment, exposure analysis, fragility modelling, and uncertainty quantification can be integrated into tsunami risk analysis workflows for research and decision support applications.
The workshop combines conceptual lectures with practical demonstrations and hands-on computational examples. Participants will also become familiar with reproducible workflows and open-source resources developed within the Geo-INQUIRE framework.
Expected Learning Outcomes
- To get familiar with the underlying concepts and alternative workflows for probabilistic tsunami risk analysis (PTRA)
- To get familiar with basic ideas in exposure modelling
- To get familiar with basics of fragility and vulnerability modelling
- To gain a better understanding of treatment and propagation of uncertainties from scenarios to consequences
- To get familiar with services, datasets, software, and workflows from Geo-INQUIRE and EPOS TCS Tsunami for PTRA
- To get a hands-on experience of simulation-based tsunami risk analysis
Useful Pre-workshop Reading Materials
Recommended textbooks and references
Behrens et al. · Frontiers in Earth Science, 2021
Rafliana, Jalayer, Cerase et al. · IJDRR, 2022
Jalayer et al. · NHESS, 2023
Abbate et al., Geophysical Journal International, 2025
Sørensen, Behrens, Jalayer et al. · Springer, 2025
J.R. Benjamin & C.A. Cornell · Dover, 2014
G.E.P. Box & G.C. Tiao · Wiley, 2011
D.J. Daley & D. Vere-Jones · Springer, 2003
O.D. Ditlevsen & H.O. Madsen · Wiley, 1996
Pre-Workshop Learning Material
The following course material and research papers are recommended as preparatory reading for the workshop
The Ph.D.-level course strives to introduce elementary concepts in probability and is based on the course Applied Statistics and Probability Analysis, previously taught at the University of Naples Federico II, Department of Structures, until 2022. The main aspect that distinguishes this course is that it is inspired by the concept of probability as extended logic (See E. T. Jaynes, Probability Theory: The Logic of Science (2003) ).
🎯 Objective
The objective of this course is to introduce the essential concepts and tools that a researcher may encounter in his/her problem-solving. The course begins by providing elementary concepts in probability theory. Next, the students are going to get to know the different types of probability distributions and their statistics. Specifically, the Poisson family of distributions, Normal and Lognormal distributions will be discussed thoroughly. Furthermore, the probabilistic model of linear regression will be described. Finally, the standard Monte Carlo Simulation method will be introduced. Emphasis is placed on showing the application of probabilistic concepts in real research examples.
Course Repository
Lecture notes and solutions to selected sample problems are available through the
💻 GitHub
and are released under the
.
Google Colab Notebooks
Interactive exercises and practical notebooks